According to reports, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Black Adam won’t be available in China. The box office results of the most recent Marvel Cinematic Universe and DC Universe movies were scheduled to be compared as the final two superhero films of 2022. The domestic box office for Black Adam started off strong and reported the greatest DC results in a number of years. Black Panther 2 is predicted to be one of the biggest films of 2022 and even has a similar opening weekend to the first Black Panther film from 2018. Both movies were produced with the idea of having a global release to boost their box office results.
Black Panther 2 and Black Adam are not anticipated to be released in China. Beijing regulators have not yet made any official announcements in this regard. China used to play a significant role in Hollywood’s calculations for box office, but as censorship has increased, fewer American films have been permitted to be shown there even though China’s box office is still relatively healthy. The fact that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Black Adam won’t be released in China is not likely to be officially announced, but some sources in the Chinese entertainment sector think there is “little prospect of getting clearance at this time.”
The first movie and other MCU films’ performances in China provide insight into the effects of Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s delayed release. Black Panther from 2018 brought approximately $105 million in China alone. It may have been possible for the sequel to perform just as well, but it now appears unlikely that this would be the case. As a result, Black Panther 2 will join the other Phase 4 MCU films in not having a Chinese distribution. Marvel’s Phase 3 films averaged approximately $200M in China, and no movie failed to gross at least $100M. Black Panther 2’s box office potential elevates Phase 4 to a new level, however, it is unclear if that momentum would have persisted had those movies been released there.
The movie’s box office performance will be badly impacted by Black Adam’s failure to open in China, maybe significantly. Only two films from the DC Universe have made over $100 million in China, so there hasn’t been a significant presence there in the past. However, Aquaman grossed $291M in China alone and was a tremendous hit with the local audience. Dwayne Johnson is a massive celebrity there, so even if the DC brand might not be as powerful as Marvel’s, Black Adam’s box office numbers could have been different. In addition to Rampage ($156M), Hobbs & Shaw ($201M), Skyscraper ($98M), San Andreas ($103M), and the Fast & Furious films, China has long been a strong market for these films.